Statistical Tests for Global Warming Fails to Find Statistically Significantly Anthropogenic Forcing 1

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AGW Bombshell? A new paper shows statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significantly anthropogenic forcing

From the journal Earth System Dynamics billed as “An Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union” comes this paper which suggests that the posited AGW forcing effects simply isn’t statistically significant in the observations, but other natural forcings are.

“…We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.”

This is a most interesting paper, and potentially a bombshell, because they have taken virtually all of the significant observational datasets (including GISS and BEST) along with solar irradiance from Lean and Rind, and CO2, CH4, N2O, aerosols, and even water vapor data and put them all to statistical tests (including Lucia’s favorite, the unit root test) against forcing equations. Amazingly, it seems that they have almost entirely ruled out anthropogenic forcing in the observational data, but allowing for the possibility they could be wrong, say:

“…our rejection of AGW is not absolute; it might be a false positive, and we cannot rule out the possibility that recent global warming has an anthropogenic footprint. However, this possibility is very small, and is not statistically significant at conventional levels.”

I expect folks like Tamino (aka Grant Foster) and other hotheaded statistics wonks will begin an attack on why their premise and tests are no good, but at the same time I look for other less biased stats folks to weigh in and see how well it holds up. My sense of this is that the authors of Beenstock et al have done a pretty good job of ruling out ways they may have fooled themselves. My thanks to Andre Bijkerk and Joanna Ballard for bringing this paper to my attention on Facebook.


Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming ( Complete Paper/PDF: HERE  )

  • M. Beenstock1, Y. Reingewertz2, and N. Paldor3
  • 1Department of Economics, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem, Israel
  • 2Department of Economics, the George Washington University, 2115 G St, Washington DC, USA
  • 3Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel

….  MORE

UN Climate Conference: A Trojan Horse for Global Government 1

Marc Morano Interview –


Selected excerpts from November 26, 2012:

By Marc Morano  –  Climate Depot

Morano: “Climate activists think we need more taxes & regulation to somehow stop bad weather…Mayor Bloomberg said we need to take immediate action to prevent bad weather. This has now reached the level of the Mayan Calendar and Nostradamus.

The NYT has picture of stature of liberty underwater and warming of the end times. This is not science, this is the doomsday stuff of the Mayan calendar and we have no business masquerading it as science. When I was in U.S. Senate Environment & Public Works Committee, I got to go to Bali, S. America, Africa, My r/t ticket to Kenya in 2006 was $16,000 business class. The UN likes exotic locals…

To use Hurricane Sandy as the poster child for global warming — as the UN and Gore are now doing –makes as little sense as you can possibly imagine. We have gone longest period since the Civil War without a major cat 3 or larger hurricane to hit the U.S. If anything, global warming would prevent — at least Atlantic hurricanes — from making landfall.

The World Meteorological Organization said there is no evidence of a human footprint in hurricane activity. For warmists to pick hurricanes as a poster child means they are completely devoid of science. Obama said Americans can ‘do something’ about floods, hurricanes, droughts tornadoes, as though, you can at the ballot box, you vote yourself better weather. They are implying we can legislate better weather.”




Interview with UN Climate Change Enforcer, Christiana Figueres

The top UN global warming climate change negotiator Christiana Figueres, who is in charge of arm-twisting industrialized countries to fight greenhouse gas emissions, framed her real agenda in plain language that everybody can easily understand.

These are her actual words, as reported by the Washington Examiner:

Christiana Figueres, who leads the United Nations negotiations to cut greenhouse gas emissions, described the climate change she seeks as a world-encompassing “revolution” engineered by “centralized” governments.

“We are inspiring government, private sector, and civil society to [make] the biggest transformation that they have ever undertaken,”

Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, commented in an interview published by The Guardian last week.