Study: El Nino Extreme Weather Caused by Atmospheric Aerosols Reply

Evergreen Tanker- El Nino 

 Keith Potts Note –  230915 

“In the lead up to COP 21 in Paris in December the United Nations, French Government and the University of Pierre and Marie Curie in Paris along with others hosted the climate science conference “Our Common Future Under Climate Change” in July this year to update climate science before COP 21. At the plenary session on day one of the conference Dr Sandrine Bony stated that climate research should focus on: 1. Aerosols; 2. Atmospheric circulation; 3. Blocking systems; and 4. Extreme events and I agree with her since items 2 to 4 are, I believe, controlled by item 1 and they have a significant and damaging effect on precipitation in south eastern Australia including Adelaide. I presented the enclosed poster at the Paris conference in July which describes how the continental scale aerosol plume over south east Asia, Indonesia to Papua New Guinea, causes all droughts in South Eastern Australia including the millennium drought and all El Nino events. I would be happy to explain this poster and my research to you noting that I met the South Australian chief scientist this morning to inform her of my research. My paper shows that it is vital that the decisions at COP21 include strategies to address the carbonaceous aerosol plume over south eastern Asia. Note: Carbonaceous aerosols are both black carbon and organic carbon particles contained in the smoke created by biomass burning and are not carbon dioxide which is a gas. Regards, Keith Potts” (Source PDF)

Video Excerpt:  Keith Potts

Unidentified Geengineering questioner

Geophysicist, Keith Potts presenting at UPMC, Paris: First of all, a comment to the previous questioner who asked about aerosols. If you’re concerned about aerosols I would suggest you’re probabaly not concerned enough. And I have a paper this afternoon at UPMC and tomorrow evening as a poster which you might be interested in. My question really is about aerosols. The whole focus of what we’ve been talking about is the about greenhouse gases but it’s relatively easy to show that the aerosols passed the tipping point decades ago in many areas of the world. – like Southeast Asia, West Africa and many others. How much work have any of you done on assessing the effect of these continental scale aerosol plumes which didn’t exist 50 years ago and which now exist in 8 places in the world? The IPCC in the Ar-4 said that aerosols “May” effect the hydrologic cycle and the global circulation systems more than the greenhouse gases. I think they’re right. In fact, I know they’re right. How has that been incorporated into any of the work you’ve done? Thank You.” ( Keith.Potts@bigpond.com )

Prof. Tim Lenton, University of Exeter: I’ve done some work on the aerosols. I’ve certainly considered it as an important forcing factor for some of our candidate tipping elements especially monsoon systems including India in summer monsoon where there’s observational data showing – at least correlational data, showing a strong link between the increasing atmospheric BROWN CLOUD of aerosols and overall decline in rainfall effects on crop yields, delay of monsoon onset. So we always said in our tipping elements analysis that if there were a threat to these sub-tropical monsoon systems, the more immediate or apparent threat was from the aerosol pollution and I think that is a subject that continues to deserve more attention in China, even in West Africa and other regions. So we do take that seriously, and suppose the flip-side good news is there’s potential to more quickly control the aerosol pollution. (likely alluding to cessation of chemtrails) ( AR-4 – Climate Change 2007 – IPCC Fourth Assessment Report )

The Southeast Asian Aerosol Plume – The Trigger and Sustaining Cause of All El Nino Events

POSTER  Click Here to Enlarge (PDF)

South East Asian Aerosol Plume Cause of EL NINO Events - Keith Potts

Note: Although Keith Potts  fails to include the covert global aerosol dump operation, his paper describes how carbonaceous aerosol plumes are a potent source of climate engineering when strategically deployed into the atmosphere by jet tankers or other vehicles. Pott’s thesis also supports Dr. J. Marvin Herndon’s evidence that coal ash is a significant additive in the covert deployment of carbonaceous, climate engineering aerosols. (Source)

Poster: THE SOUTH EAST ASIAN AEROSOL PLUME

1. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS, CARBONACEOUS AEROSOL PLUMES AND ENSO EVENTS  –

Paris 2015 THE SOUTH EAST ASIAN AEROSOL PLUME THE TRIGGER AND SUSTAINING CAUSE OF ALL EL NIÑO EVENTS

Abstract:  Many attempts have been made to directly link volcanic eruptions to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. They have failed for two reasons:  A focus on large eruptions whilst excluding small eruptions which only eject tephra into the troposphere; and  A global interest rather than a restricted geographic focus as only one aerosol plume, the South East Asian aerosol Plume (SEAP), can cause an ENSO event and it exists over south eastern Asia including Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand and the Philippines (See 4 below for exact area definitions). The SEAP is one of eight continental scale aerosol plumes which now occur each year and is the sole trigger and sustaining cause of ENSO events. Such events are the dominant mode of interannual variability in the global climate and are considered responsible for significant global climatic variations including drought in Australia and Indonesia, floods in the Americas and a generally increased global temperature. This paper shows that apparitions of the SEAP created by volcanic eruptions (natural) and carbonaceous aerosols from biomass burning and gas flares in the oil production industry (anthropogenic) are the sole driver of ENSO events and therefore of all the other effects which were previously considered to be caused by ENSO events. Apparitions of the SEAP create these effects by absorbing solar radiation near the top of the plume and reducing the level of solar radiation at the surface. This heats the upper atmosphere and cools the surface creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the SEAP. This reduces convection in the SEAP Area, the largest of the three major areas of convection in the world, Amazonia and Africa being the others, and thus alters the major atmospheric circulation systems, the Hadley and Walker Cells, with global ramifications – ENSO events. The ENSO state is maintained until the SEAP dissipates and the climate system then relaxes back to a non-ENSO state. 2. The Eight Great Aerosol Plumes – Jan & Sep 2006 (NASA Giovanni – Terra AOD) 3. Interannual Variation – SEAP Oct 2005 & 2006 (NASA Giovanni – Terra AOD) 4. The South East Asian aerosol Plume (SEAP) The anthropogenic SEAP is one of eight aerosol plumes which occur annually. It can be seen on the monthly mean AOD data from the NASA Giovanni System. Two areas are used to describe the SEAP: the SEAP Area, its location; and the Central SEAP (CSEAP) Area where it is most intense (4a). The increase in the monthly AI/AOD of the CSEAP Area since 1979 (4b) demonstrates the peak anthropogenic aerosol emission season is SON the end of the dry season in SE Asia, and was very high in 1997, 2002, 04, 06, 09 and 14 compared with the intervening years. 3b shows the extent of the October 2006 extreme apparition of the SEAP. This paper first focuses on SON (4c) because the anthropogenic SEAP is at its most intense and will therefore have its greatest effect in this season. The maximum AOD and AI for the CSEAP Area was 1.282 (Oct 2006) and 1.811 (Sept 1997). The AI of the CSEAP Area grew from 0.050 in Sep 1979 to 0.297 in 1992 and to 0.396 in 2000 a 491% and 687% increase respectively in years without extensive biomass burning. From 1979 to 1997, a major biomass burning event year, the increase in AI in September was 3,499%. The major anthropogenic sources of aerosols are biomass burning driven by an increasing population needing agricultural land and living space as well as commercial activity and gas flares in the oil industry – NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA) estimates SE Asia flares 4.03 billion cubic metres of gas each year. The natural SEAP: The SEAP Area is the most tectonically active area in the World with the USGS earthquake database showing 29% (5 of 17) of major earthquakes (magnitude > 8.4) in the World since 1900 occurred in the SEAP Area and the Global Volcanism Program’s database showing that from 1500 to 2014 over 23% of the global volcanic eruptions occurred in the SEAP Area. The figures below show the number of earthquakes (4d), volcanic eruptions and the volume of tephra ejected in the SEAP Area through the last century (4e) and it is clear that the level of activity varies hugely. Volcanic eruptions are the natural and historic source of aerosols in the SEAP Area. 5. El Niño / ENSO Events, Aerosols & Tephra El Niño events are closely linked with changes in the Walker circulation – especially the Trade Winds. The literature, NASA, NOAA, the IPCC and the UK Met Office state in reports or on their websites that El Niño events start when the Trade Winds in the central and western Pacific Ocean relax or reverse. The Trade Winds form the lower limb of the Walker Cell a “Direct thermally driven zonal overturning circulation in the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with rising air in the western and sinking air in the eastern Pacific” (IPCC). As the Walker Cell is directly thermally driven the heat must be applied at the Earth’s surface in SE Asia – the SEAP Area – to drive the convection and as the variation in solar radiation at the top of atmosphere cannot explain the reduction in surface heating and the relaxation of the Trade Winds the reduction in heat must be caused by aerosols in the atmosphere. First: I show the correlations of the AI and AOD of the CSEAP Area and the various indices used to monitor ENSO events identified in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5), shown in red, as well as other parameters in 5a and 5b. They demonstrate that when an aerosol plume exists in the SEAP Area from 1979 to 2014:  The level of (OLR) increases – implying a decrease in the radiation reaching the surface;  The air temperature at 650hPa increases showing the plume warms the upper atmosphere;  Convection in the CSEAP Area reduces and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the SEAP Area reduces;  The Trade Winds relax;  The SST in the Niño Areas 1+2 and 3.4 increases as does the Oceanic Niño Index;  The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) decreases. Second: Table 5c shows the relationship between: volcanic tephra in the SEAP Area; and Niño 3.4 SST; SOI and CSEAP Area omega. Tephra (4f) data was calculated from the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) data, VEI Tephra (VEIT), deskewed, segmented, averaged/segment and then correlated with the segmented averages of the other parameters from 1870, 1876 and 1948 respectively to 2014. Graphs of VEIT, SST and SOI are at 5j and 5l. Third: The maps 5e to 5i (NCEP Reanalysis) show the anomalies caused by the SEAP by deducting years of low SEAP AOD (2000, 01 and 05) from years of high AOD (2002, 04 and 06) in SST, SLP, omega, wind speed and OLR. Fourth: The graphs 5j to 5l show the Niño 3.4 SST increases with higher VEIT and CSEAP AI and AOD and the SOI decreases with increased VEIT. Graphs of AI and AOD with omega and OLR are shown at the bottom of the poster. 6. Mechanism The SEAP absorbs, reradiates and reflects solar radiation as the correlations of AI/AOD with OLR and air temperature at 600hPa show. Fig. 6a (IPCC AR5) shows volcanic aerosol plumes and states that the effect on the lower atmosphere and therefore the surface is “Cooling because the reduction of sunlight overwhelms any increased downward energy emitted by volcanic cloud”. This reduction in surface solar radiation (aerosol regional dimming) reduces the energy available to drive convection in the CSEAP Area (5a, 5b (9)). Omega, measured in Pa/s, is negative for rising air and the AI/AOD correlations are positive as an increase in AI/AOD reduces convection. The reduced convection then forces the Walker Circulation to relax and reduces the Trade Wind speed as with lower or no convection over the SEAP Area there is no “exit” for the Trade Winds into the Walker and Hadley Cells. The relaxation of the Trade Winds causes the SST to rise in the Niño areas as there is a strong negative annual correlation (-0.88/-0.93 Annual Average/Inter annual difference) between wind speed and SST in the Niño 3.4 area. The reduction of convection in the SEAP area reduces rainfall in the region and this is reinforced by the weaker Trade Winds which transport less water vapour into the region. This creates conditions conducive to forest fires in the SEAP Area which create a denser aerosol plume and positive feedback driving the climate more deeply into an El Niño. The other effects during El Niño events are created by changes in the global circulation and wind systems which all arise from the reduction in convection over the SEAP Area (the maritime continent) and the relaxation of the Trade Winds. For example, drought in SE Australia (SEAus) is caused by the SEAP in two ways: First: The SEAP Area is the source of rainfall in SEAus and, as the plume cools the sea surface, evaporation reduces and hence the available water also reduces; Second: The SEAP moves the regional Hadley Cell into an anomalous position creating a blocking high pressure system over SEAus (5f) which forces cold fronts to the south and away from the land. This combination of lower humidity and fewer cold fronts results in drought. 7. Conclusions 1. El Niño/ENSO events are triggered and then sustained by aerosol regional dimming by the South East Asian aerosol Plume (SEAP). 2. The ENSO correlations with volcanic eruptions for 145 years and with extensive biomass burning during the satellite era where the source of the aerosols is known means that either the correlations are coincidence or the relationship of SEAP to ENSO is causal. 8. Acknowledgements Data and information was sourced from:  NASA: Analyses and visualizations used in this poster were produced with the Giovanni online data system;  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration;  NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data set;  IPCC Assessment Report 4 (AR4) and 5 (AR5);  Google Earth;  Global Volcanism Program, Smithsonian Institution;  US Geological Survey;  Australian Bureau of Meteorology;  UK Met Office. AI / AOD Aerosol Index / Aerosol Optical Depth OLR Outgoing Longwave Radiation SON September, October and November Presented at “Our Common Future Under Climate Change” Paris, 7 – 10 July 2015 The costs of this research, travel and registration were funded personally by Keith and Julie Potts.

 

“Particulates” – Keith Potts

“I draw your attention to the little known fact that particulate plumes can also increase the regional surface temperature at great distances from the plume which is a totally counter intuitive result in  that particulates reduce the level of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface and would be expected to have a cooling effect. The CCS Program however states that by the year 2100 short-lived gases and particles may account for as much as 40 percent of the warming over the summertime continental United States. “

(Source:  House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee – Keith Potts)

Related:  Aerosol Indirect Effect on Biogeochemical Cycles and Climate

NOTES:

Top Climate Scientist Confirms Covert Climate Engineering an Uncontrolled Experiment
https://chemtrailsplanet.net/2015/12/26/busted-top-climate-scientist-confirms-covert-climate-engineering-a-fact/

Re-reading the IPCC Report: Aerosol regional dimming, droughts and ENSO events
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1307/6/9/092022/pdf;jsessionid=5AB08BF5088473FFD38A5A3F381246CC.c2.iopscience.cld.iop.org

Aerosol Plumes The cause of Droughts and El Niño Events By Regional Dimming – Keith Potts
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1307/6/9/092022/pdf;jsessionid=5AB08BF5088473FFD38A5A3F381246CC.c2.iopscience.cld.iop.org

THE SOUTH EAST ASIAN AEROSOL PLUME THE TRIGGER AND SUSTAINING CAUSE OF ALL EL NIÑO EVENTS
https://norwoodresource.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/the-south-east-asian-aerosol-plume.pdf

Keith Potts Notes on COP21 and Aerosols
http://assets.yoursay.sa.gov.au/static/climate_change_submissions/009_Keith_Potts.pdf

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