Clouded Vision – A Case for Climate Reverse Engineering – Part 1
This article makes the case that aircraft engine emissions which result in creation of artificial cirrus clouds are consistent with a conspiracy to warm the climate.
by Dylan Jones
Particulate trails contribute to the formation of cirrus clouds. Cirrus clouds trap more Infrared radiation than the Solar radiation they reflect and so have an overall warming influence on global temperatures. These clouds have been on the increase over a time period that correlates with the unprecedented warming of the last thirty years.
As Meteorologist Chris Edwards and UN IPCC Climate scientist Joyce Penner claim, a conspiracy to use jet produced clouds (one of the Atmospheric Geo-engineering proposals) would in fact WARM the atmosphere.
If, as Stephen Colbert suggested to David Keith on his show, this is going on right now and has been going on, perhaps this is indeed the real intention.
Are we ignoring the eight hundred pound gorilla in the greenhouse?
In 2009, Jasper Kirkby, a cloud physics scientist at CERN, reported that jet aircraft are “dumping aerosols” high in the atmosphere (Veterans Today)
Stephen Colbert blurts out in an interview with David Keith on The Colbert Report:
“You ever look at those planes up there, they have contrails behind them? Maybe all those planes with contrails maybe they`re actually spraying chemicals into the atmosphere right now and Uncle Sam isn`t telling us!”
On Detroit’s WXYZ News, Meteorologist, Chris Edwards bluntly answers his own question and defers to a heavyweight IPCC climate scientist – Joyce Penner
“But if there was a conspiracy to use jet produced clouds to cool the atmosphere, would it work? No.”
“Contrails that are spreading, that you can identify as contrails, those would tend to warm the atmosphere, everything that we know about, would say that.” .
Contrails, or rather particulate trails, in addition to forming line-shaped clouds, spread out to form aviation induced cirrus clouds. The higher cirrus clouds, unlike the lower clouds, have an overall warming effect on the globe. Penner is correct on that one.
But what if we were to turn Edwards’ question on its head?
“If there was a conspiracy to use jet produced clouds to WARM the atmosphere, would it work?”
Yes, is my blunt answer and Joyce Penner will back me up.
First, to understand Penner`s statement, we need to take a look at the different cloud types and their varying effects on the earth`s temperature.
Around 70% of the earth is covered by cloud. It follows that it has a profound influence on the climate. Solar radiation is reflected from above and Infrared radiation is reflected from below. The balance between the two is crucial. This balance hinges on the type of cloud and the proportions of those cloud types to one another.
The lowest clouds below 6000 feet cover about 28% of the earth. They reflect more solar radiation than the infrared they trap. Their warm tops also radiate heat into space.
From 6000 to 20,000 feet are the mid-level clouds, covering 7%. Also net coolers, they reflect more heat than they trap.
The high level clouds above 18,000 feet cover about 35% of the planet. These clouds have an overall net warming effect, they trap more Infrared radiation than the Solar radiation they reflect out to space. Paradoxically, because they are cold, about – 40°C , they radiate less heat into space than they trap from the earth.
The warming effect of clouds (cloud blanket) as a whole is estimated to be around:
The cooling effect of clouds (albedo) as a whole is estimated to be around
Thus, overall, clouds cool the earth by about
Do clouds warm or cool the climate?
It follows then, that a relatively small change in the distribution and frequency of cloud types can cause a significant shift in global temperature.
Has there been such an increase in cirrus clouds to correlate with the unprecedented global warming we have experienced since the mid-seventies?
The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), using the common spectral channels on board the geostationary and polar orbiting satellites, revealed a decrease in both total cloud cover and high (cirrus) clouds from the two decades between 1979 and 2001.
However there were other instruments on board the same polar orbiting weather satellites which were not used by the ISCPP as they were not available on all the geostationary satellites at that time.
The High Resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder (HIRS), instruments pick up long wave IR radiation and provide an alternative way of detecting upper tropospheric cirrus clouds, both day AND night, that often elude the two ISCPP channels.
The HIRS cloud-detection record from 1986 to 1998 as reported by Wylie et al (1994) and Wylie and Menzel (1999) showed 10-15% more cloud cover than the ISCCP mainly due to the increased detection of radiatively thin cirrus clouds.
After correcting for the more sensitive satellite instruments, the study found that in the region 60°N to 60°S, over the period from 1985 to 2001, the high clouds, which have an overall warming effect, had increased globally by 1.95% on average, per decade whilst the lower, with an overall, cooling influence, had decreased by 1.7%.
(1994–2001 minus 1985–92).
Trends in Global Cloud Cover in Two Decades of HIRS Observations (PDF)
Assuming that this trend has continued to the present day, this relatively small change in the frequency and distribution of cloud types and thus the ratio of net cooling to net warming clouds may have contributed towards significant shifts in global temperature in the last 30 years or so, comparable with the effects of greenhouse gases.
Data extracted from table 5 “The statistically significant trends in cloud frequency change per decade from 1985 to 2001” on page 11 of the study above shows the following changes in cloud type frequency per decade.
On average high clouds (ocean and land) have increased in the region 20°– 60° N by 2.2% per decade whilst all clouds have not increased. It can be inferred from this that the lower, cooling clouds have decreased by 2.2%.
In the region 20°S–20°N, high clouds have increased, on average, 0.85% per decade, whilst all clouds have increased 0.7%. Inferring from this, the lower clouds have decreased by 0.15%.
In the region 20°–60°S, high clouds have increased, on average, 2.8% per decade, whilst all clouds have not increased. Again, inferring we see that the lower clouds have decreased by 2.8%.
Ranging from 60°N to 60°S then, high, net-warming clouds have increased by 1.95% on average per decade, lower, net-cooling clouds have decreased by 1.7%.
Plugging this into what we know of the estimated forcing effects of clouds,
I roughly estimate that the change in cloud type distribution and frequency has potentially caused an increase of around 0.34 °C PER DECADE in the regions 60°N to 60°S
In part 2 we will look at the significant changes in cloud cover and temperature that have occurred in the regions not covered by the HIRS study, the poles.