Original upload “TrutherD2”
Near the close of WW2 jets were used. It was, of course, very important for these jets to avoid detection. NASA and the USAF began to research methods of predicting the occurrence of contrails. In 1953, a scientist named H. Appleman published a chart that can be used to determine when a jet airplane would or would not produce a contrail.
Using these reports and observations of temperature, pressure and relative humidity, the USAF found that the forecasts using the Appleman method were correct about 60 to 80 percent of the time. Looking more closely at the data, they found that when no contrails were forecast, the forecast was correct 98 percent of the time! However, when contrails were forecast to occur, the forecast was correct only 25 to 35 percent of the time, and often failed to predict the occurrence of contrails.
Due to the inaccuracy in predicting YES contrails with the appleman chart, we should focus solely on the 98% accurate prediction of NO contrails.
Used in combination with triangulation and atmospheric sounding data, it becomes trivial to predict whether one should be seeing contrails over their city or whether the trails seen are in fact chemtrails.
Disinfo Debunkers: “This chart was made in 1953! The science is 60 years old!”
Do you think the laws of physics have changed since then? The chart was reviewed in 1992, here. You will find that the review was done to better predict the occurrence of YES contrails and the 98% accurate prediction of NO contrails was never found to be inaccurate.
Additionally, the improved efficiency of jet engines with the development of High Bypass Turbofan has significantly reduced the engine combustion required to form water vapor – the essential ingredient in the formation of normal contrails. (See More on this topic)
Disinfo Debunkers: “Atmospheric sounding is unreliable.”
Readings are taken twice daily, sometimes hourly. The closer you are to the station and the time of reading the more accurate your results. If you are a pilot, you can use live atmospheric readings in-flight.
Disinfo Debunkers: “You can’t know the conditions up there. There are tiny pockets of vastly dissimilar air, accounting for trails appearing to start and stop, etc.”
This does not make good sense, especially when the atmospheric conditions are completely un-supportive of contrail formation to begin with. I challenge you to support your claims.
Disinfo Debunkers: “Newer engines could make it more likely for there to be contrails.”
Yes they may, just as some newer engines might be less likely to form contrails. Such variables are mentioned in the 1992 review of appleman chart contrail formation science. In my view, the change will be negligible (perhaps a few thousand feet and a degree or two celcius) and the appleman chart will be enough to show glaring differences in what we should be seeing and what we are seeing.
If you intend to prove or debunk chemtrails being created by “planes”, be sure that you use legitimate NASA USAF contrail formation science such as the appleman chart!
If you catch someone denying chemtrails and they aren’t familiar with and actively promoting this chart (or updated contrail-formation science as shown), it would be wise to suspect their motives.
“Max T. Persistence” does not necessarily mean indefinite persistence. From what I’ve seen in documentaries by pilots & investigators and online in journalist tests, 30s-2 mins is normal. (Must dig up links) Taking into account what we know about contrail and cloud science, including exhaust particulate, humidity, pressure and temperature, it would seem obvious that the conditions for indefinite persistence with a given engine are quite specific.
Further, remember that the prediction of YES contrails by the appleman chart is only correct 25 – 35% of the time. So predicting when a contrail will persist with any accuracy is impossible.
The USAF reviewed the Appleman Chart in 1992 as they wanted to improve prediction of YES contrails, and the method ETACFCST was developed:
Now you know an easy method to discover chemtrails for yourself!